Monday, October 5, 2015

Only hope

This is a hand from a casual game in Google Seattle (so assume IMPS and some vulnerability).

You hold Q765, AT, KJ43, 543.

RHO is the dealer and opens 1C, you pass, LHO passes, partner doubles, pass by RHO, you bid 2S and partner jumps to 4S.

LHO leads the club 8 (they play MUD, if it matters), and this is what you see:

IMPS
None 
 North
♠ 432
♥ Q43
♦ AQ76
♣ AKQ

     


 South
♠ Q765
♥ AT
♦ KJ43
♣ 543

W N E S
1CP
PXP2S
P4SPP
P


You ought to have been in 3NT by partner, which is cold, and you will reach that if partner just bid normally. But, you are in 4S now.

You win in dummy and play a spade. RHO wins the K of spades, cashes the Ace of spades and leads back a club. You win, LHO following with a low card. When you play a spade from dummy, RHO throws a club.

How will you play?




You have three trump losers. The only hope of making this contract is that LHO holds the heart Jack, and you endplay LHO to lead a heart. You just need to guess LHO's minor suit distribution correctly. If LHO has 3 clubs and 2 diamonds, you need to cash 2 diamonds and a club, and then endplay LHO. If you guess incorrectly, LHO can ruff early and have a card to exit with.

Now RHO has AK of spades, K of hearts and J of clubs, with no more than 4 hearts and 5 clubs. So RHO has at least 2 diamonds.

If RHO was balanced with 11 points, RHO might not have opened. So give RHO some distribution, and hence 5 clubs (also consistent with the discards). RHO could have beaten the contract legitimately by giving LHO a club ruff while he still had exit cards, but that is a difficult defense to find.

Thus we play LHO to hold two clubs. So the plan is: win the SQ, cash three rounds of diamonds ensuring a hand entry, then cash a club and then the last diamond to hand, planning to throw LHO in with a spade. LHO can ruff in (or not) anytime time, but then has to lead a heart ensuring two tricks there.


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